Observations and Perspectives: Canaries in the Coal Mine – What to Watch as Stocks Continue to Make New Highs
WEDNESDAY JUNE 21, 2017 | BY TERRI SPATH Stocks continue to teeter at all-time highs and the out-sized profits enjoyed since November of last year are really a continuation of the bull market that turned 8 years old this past March. Low starting valuations, improved economic growth and employment, increased corporate earnings and low interest […]
Observations and Perspectives: Look Out Above! Rates Are Going Up.
WEDNESDAY MARCH 1, 2017 | BY TERRI SPATH About fifty days into the new administration and the trend we have observed since July 2016 remains intact: interest rates are going up. As measured by the 10-year Treasury note, interest rates bottomed last July with a low closing post of 1.37%. Shortly thereafter, markets began to recognize […]
Observations and Perspectives: Is the Sugar High Wearing Off?
THURSDAY JANUARY 12, 2017 | BY TERRI SPATH Anticipation of lower taxes and higher infrastructure spending initially pushed investor enthusiasm and stock prices higher for several weeks following the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. At the same time, a sea of change from central bank dominated markets to a […]
Observations and Perspectives: Do You Smell That?
TUESDAY NOVEMBER 1, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH What’s that smell? No political jokes. No celebrity ones either. That smell you smell is the faint whiff of inflation seeping into the economy. It’s also one of the big reasons for the cruel October bond selloff. Let’s be clear from the start: we are not predicting […]
Observations and Perspectives: Your Client Doesn’t Care About Standard Deviation
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 13, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH All else equal, given the choice between a 10% gain or a 5% gain, most (all) investors prefer the 10%, right? A degree in math or a course in probability and statistics isn’t needed to figure that out. Clearly, investing isn’t quite that straightforward though. Earning higher returns means […]
Observations and Perspectives: Sell Everything? Even the Kids?
THURSDAY AUGUST 4, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH A very smart investor (more than one very smart investor, actually) is saying to sell everything. These “smart guys” are very likely smarter than me. They most certainly are wealthier than I am. Some may argue they are also better looking than me. Listen, it’s hard to disagree with the logic of […]
Observations and Perspectives: Right Back Where We Started From
FRIDAY JUNE 24, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH In an emotional vote against crony capitalism, immigration fears and the widening gap between haves and have-nots, the UK voted on Thursday to leave the European Union, shocking pollsters and market makers the world over. The psychological damage on Friday was jarring: the British pound touched a 30-year […]
Observations and Perspectives: Pass the Pepto-Bismol
MONDAY JUNE 6, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH As stocks reach record highs, it’s worth re-visiting the ride to get here. It’s not unusual to see pullbacks in stocks, but over the past 12 months, investors in U.S. stocks have suffered two 12+% drops in the S&P 500 and in the process made a full […]
The Dove, The Fed and the Tanker
FRIDAY APRIL 29, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH Since the Federal Reserve raised its borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) this past December, the U.S. dollar keeps dropping to lower and lower levels relative to other currencies. The tanking dollar is the exact opposite of the predictions of economists’ models. Here’s what most economists […]
Observations and Perspectives: Is it Time to Live “Happily Ever After”?
MONDAY MARCH 28, 2016 | BY TERRI SPATH Stocks have rallied back into the green for 2016, recovering completely from the January collapse. The market breadth is convincing. Last year, we highlighted that “risk-on” assets were in fact at risk. One reason we held this view was the serious lack of breadth in the broad stock market. While the […]